The latest assessment from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, issued on September 10, says there is now a greater than 90 percent chance that El NiƱo will reach very strong intensity during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026 and 2027.
NOAA also puts the probability of a historic-strength event during the October-to-December period at 75 percent.
Under NOAAās definition, a historic event would exceed the strength of previous El NiƱo events recorded since 1950.
However, forecasters have stressed that this remains a forecast and does not mean the current event has already broken an all-time record.
El NiƱo is one of the most important naturally occurring climate patterns on Earth.
It develops when sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific become unusually warm, altering the normal interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere.
Those changes can affect atmospheric circulation thousands of kilometres away from the Pacific, influencing rainfall, temperature, storms and drought patterns across different parts of the world.
According to NOAAās latest assessment, the current event has already reached exceptional levels in some parts of the Pacific.
Sea-surface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific have exceeded three degrees Celsius above average in some areas.
The NiƱo-3.4 region, one of the main indicators used to assess the strength of El NiƱo, reached an anomaly of about 1.8 degrees Celsius.
The NiƱo-3 region reached about 2.5 degrees Celsius, while the NiƱo-1+2 region recorded an anomaly of approximately 3.4 degrees Celsius.
Scientists are also observing unusually warm water below the surface of the Pacific Ocean.
NOAA says widespread subsurface temperature anomalies have exceeded 10 degrees Celsius at depth.
That unusually warm subsurface water is important because it provides additional heat that can help sustain and strengthen the El NiƱo event as it develops.
NOAAās Climate Prediction Center says the event is expected to strengthen further through the end of 2026.
Separate experimental modelling from NOAAās Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory also points to the possibility of an exceptionally strong event.
In its September forecast, GFDL said all 30 members of its model ensemble showed the developing El NiƱo competing with, or potentially exceeding, the strongest events in the historical record.
That does not guarantee a record-breaking event, because climate forecasts become less certain farther into the future.
But the level of agreement among the model projections has increased scientific confidence that the current El NiƱo could become historically strong.
The potential consequences are global.
El NiƱo does not produce the same weather everywhere.
Instead, it changes the probability of particular weather patterns, increasing the likelihood of heavy rainfall in some areas while contributing to drought or unusually dry conditions in others.
It can also influence temperature patterns, tropical storms, agricultural conditions, fisheries and water supplies.
In the United States, strong El NiƱo events commonly influence winter weather across large parts of the country.
Seasonal forecasts generally associate El NiƱo with wetter conditions across parts of the southern United States, while other areas can experience different temperature and precipitation patterns.
The phenomenon can also affect hurricane activity in the Atlantic.
Strong El NiƱo conditions tend to increase vertical wind shear over the Atlantic Ocean, an atmospheric condition that can make it more difficult for tropical storms and hurricanes to develop and intensify.
However, scientists caution that El NiƱo is only one factor affecting hurricane activity.
Other oceanic and atmospheric conditions can also determine how active a hurricane season becomes.
The effects of El NiƱo extend beyond weather forecasts.
Major events have historically disrupted agriculture, fisheries, water availability and other economic activities.
Changes in rainfall can cause flooding in some regions while creating drought conditions in others.
Farmers can therefore face challenges when seasonal rainfall patterns differ significantly from what is normally expected.
Fisheries can also be affected because changes in ocean temperatures and currents influence marine ecosystems.
Communities that depend heavily on predictable rainfall or water supplies may likewise face increased pressure.
But scientists caution against attributing every extreme weather event directly to El NiƱo.
Weather is influenced by many interacting factors, including regional ocean temperatures, atmospheric circulation and long-term global warming.
El NiƱo should therefore be understood as one major climate factor that can shift the odds of particular weather outcomes rather than as the sole cause of every extreme event.
The current El NiƱo is also developing against a backdrop of exceptionally high global temperatures.
That combination has attracted additional scientific attention because a strong natural climate pattern occurring in an already warming climate can contribute to unusual conditions in some parts of the world.
The precise effect will vary from region to region, however, and scientists say it remains important to separate the influence of El NiƱo from other climate drivers.
There is also an important distinction between the popular expression āSuper El NiƱoā and the official terminology used by NOAA.
āSuper El NiƱoā is commonly used by media organisations and climate commentators to describe an exceptionally powerful event.
NOAA does not use āSuper El NiƱoā as an official classification.
Instead, its September 10 assessment describes the current situation as El NiƱo, with a greater than 90 percent chance of becoming a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter.
The agency also gives the event a 75 percent chance of reaching historic strength during October through December.
That means the event is potentially on course to rank among the strongest El NiƱo episodes observed since 1950, but the final outcome will depend on how ocean and atmospheric conditions evolve during the coming months.
For governments, emergency-management agencies, farmers and water authorities, the latest forecast provides an opportunity to prepare for possible changes in weather conditions.
Weather agencies will continue monitoring sea-surface temperatures, subsurface ocean heat, atmospheric pressure, winds and rainfall as the event develops.
Scientists will also continue comparing observations with computer-model forecasts to determine whether the event is strengthening as expected.
The coming months will be particularly important because El NiƱo is expected to reach peak strength around the end of 2026 or early in the 2026-27 Northern Hemisphere winter.
If current forecasts are confirmed, the event could become one of the most powerful El NiƱo episodes in the modern observational record.
But forecasters are emphasising that the record has not yet been broken.
For now, the clearest message is that El NiƱo is strengthening rapidly and has a very high probability of becoming a very strong event.
Its effects will not be identical in every country, but the phenomenon has the potential to influence weather patterns across large parts of the world.
As governments and communities prepare for possible flooding, drought, heat and other climate-related impacts, scientists will continue monitoring the tropical Pacific closely.
The next stages of the event will determine whether the current forecasts of historic strength become reality.
For now, the world is watching the Pacific as a powerful El NiƱo continues to build, with the possibility that the 2026-27 event could rank among the strongest in more than seven decades of modern records.
Khalil Ibrahim Yaro
Experienced journalist, Editor in Chief and media professional with a strong background in field reporting, investigative journalism, Editorial production, interviewing, research, digital media and newsroom coordination.
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